Probably not. Many commentators are quite negative about the global growth outlook for next year, but the leading indicators aren't actually that bad. We had a significantly better than expected US Employment report on Friday which will give a boost to the consumer portion of the US economy. And Capital Economics have just released a note titled "Six reasons for optimism about the world economy".
- No sign of a sharp downturn in business surveys. October global PMI has ticked up and and is higher in 2015 than in 2013 and 2014
- Monetary aggregates are growing strongly, indicating broad economic activity
- fiscal austerity is fading
- the full benefits of lower commodity prices have not been felt yet
- key emerging market economies are showing signs of improvement
- financial markets are calmer, and in particular not overly stressed about a Fed rate hike
Our long run market value indicators are consistent with his view. We don't yet see markets as being overstretched.