ANZ business confidence is looking really, really poor (see table below). Full details on ANZ website here. This is typically a leading indicator for GDP, NZD, OCR........ The numbers are not really that open to interpretation....... The detail is universally negative, across almost all categories. The clear implication is for a weaker currency over the year ahead. First NZ Capital suggest that the risk of a recession in the next year is in the region of 25%-30% - this is much higher than what most commentators (including the RBNZ) expect.