Deutsche Bank has recently published “The House View” on the economy and markets for 2017. We have summarised some key takeaways.
- Global growth to improve to 3.5% in 2017 (from 3.1%).
- US economy set for upside especially from H2-2017. Forecast 2.5% growth in 2017, 3.6% in 2018.
- Eurozone: political pressure will continue to be a drag on growth, forecast 1.3% in 2017.
Key global themes
- Political risk – Trump and Brexit uncertainty remains. Also, keep an eye on Italy and France.
- Normalisation – Inflation is back! Albeit slowly. Rates look to creep off the bottom.
- De-globalisation – Widespread anti-globalisation rhetoric, spurred on by the Trump administration and Brexiteers.
- US – Bullish, recovery improves on the back of strong US and Global growth, Financials and Energy well positioned to bolster the market.
- Eurozone – Potential for upside, earnings outlook is beginning to improve due to global growth, strong commodity prices and a deflated euro.
- Emerging markets – Cautiously optimistic global growth will be supportive. Keep an eye out for India with growth forecasted to outpace China by half a percent in 2017.
Source: Deutsche Bank.